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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still